Reversals of Fortune? A Long-term Perspective on Global Economic Prospects

Authors

Sascha O. Becker, University of Warwick; Stephen Broadberry, LSE & CAGE; Nicholas Crafts, University of Warwick; Sayantan Ghosal, University of Warwick; Sharun W. Mukand, University of Warwick; Vera E. Troeger, University of Warwick
DOI: https://doi.org/10.31273/978-0-9576027-00

Synopsis

It is conventional wisdom that:

  • Continued fast growth in the BRICS will result in a rapid catch-up to match and even surpass Western income levels in the next few decades
  • The crisis in Europe will soon be over and normal growth will then resume as if nothing had happened
  • The tax competition resulting from globalization means a race to the bottom in which corporate tax rates fall dramatically everywhere
  • The best way to escape the poverty trap is to give the poor more money
  • Losers from globalization can be ignored by politicians in western democracies because they do not matter for electoral outcomes
  • The adjustment problems for developing countries arising from the crisis are quite minor and easy to deal with

Actually, as Reversals of Fortune shows, all of these beliefs are highly questionable. The research findings reported here provide economic analysis and evidence that challenge these claims.

In the report, Nicholas Crafts asks: "What Difference does the Crisis make to Long-term West European Growth?"  Vera Troeger considers "The Impact of Globalisation and Global Economic Crises on Social Cohesion and Attitudes towards Welfare State Policies in Developed Western Democracies."  Stephen Broadberry looks at "The BRICs: What does Economic History say about their Growth Prospects?"  Sharun Mukand takes "The View from the Developing World: Institutions, Global Shocks and Economic Adjustment."  Finally, Sayantan Ghosal has a new perspective on "The Design of Pro-poor Policies."

Author Biographies

Sascha O. Becker, University of Warwick

Sascha O. Becker is Professor of Economics at the University of Warwick and the Research Director for CAGE. He obtained his PhD from the European University Institute, Florence, in 2001. His main fields of research interest are education and labour economics, public economics and economic history.

Stephen Broadberry, LSE & CAGE

Stephen Broadberry is Professor of Economic History at the London School of Economics and a Research Theme Leader at CAGE. He obtained his DPhil from Oxford in 1982. His main fields of research interest are economic history and economic growth.

Nicholas Crafts, University of Warwick

Nicholas Crafts is Professor of Economics and Economic History at the University of Warwick and Director of CAGE. His main fields of research interest are the comparative economic performance of European economies and the economic geography of industrialisation.

Sayantan Ghosal, University of Warwick

Sayantan Ghosal is Professor of Economics at the University of Warwick. He was Research Director for CAGE from 2010 to 2012 and is now a key researcher at CAGE with a strong involvement in Theme 3, Poverty and Wellbeing. He obtained his PhD from CORE, Université Catholique de Louvain in 1995. His field of research is economic theory and its applications, including general equilibrium models, modelling internal constraints and deprivation, financial crises and longrun growth.

Sharun W. Mukand, University of Warwick

Sharun W. Mukand is Professor of Economics at the University of Warwick and Research Theme Leader at CAGE. He obtained his PhD from Boston University in 1998. His main areas of research interest are the political economy of globalisation and development, with a focus on the political economy of policymaking.

Vera E. Troeger, University of Warwick

Vera E. Troeger is Professor of Quantitative Political Science at the Economics Department and the Department for Politics and International Studies at the University of Warwick and is Research Associate at CAGE. She obtained her PhD from the Max Planck Institute of Economics and the University of Konstanz in 2006. Her research interests lie at the intersection of international and comparative political economy, econometrics, and applied statistics.

Downloads

Full report
Executive Summary

Published

March 1, 2013

Series

CAGE Policy Reports
Copyright (c) 2013 Sascha O. Becker; Stephen Broadberry, Nicholas Crafts, Sayantan Ghosal, Sharun W. Mukand, Vera E. Troeger